Are crowds collectively “smarter” than any one individual? Are markets all that efficient? How much does Mr. Market actually know about the future? Investors have wrestled with those questions with limited success for a long time. The current sell off and recovery put these questions into even sharper focus. In...
My shelter-in-place morning train reads: • How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of a 75-Cent Face Mask: A very American story about capitalism consuming our national preparedness and resiliency. (New York Times) see also How the Pandemic Will End: This is how it’s going to play out. (The...
My mid-week morning train reads: • Will coronavirus intimacy lead to a baby boom? Or a divorce tsunami? (Washington Post)• Restaurants Are Being Destroyed. Money Managers Should Be Scared. (Institutional Investor)• The NBA’s Financial Future Is Incredibly Complicated (Sports Illustrated)• The untold origin story of the N95 mask (Fast...
Note: we recorded this March 3, just before the work-at-home lockdown had begun. ~~~ In 1999, David Dunning, professor of psychology at the University of Michigan, co-wrote a paper with colleague Justin Kruger on metacognition. Titled “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to...
Peter Boockvar is the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and Editor of The Boock Report. ~~~ Before I get into the details of the bill, I just needed to sing this out loud because I’m so damn curious as to what Warren Buffett is thinking and doing with all that cash he’s sitting...
Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment PeriodBy James Bullard, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisOn the Economy, March 2020       Introduction The coronavirus has the potential to create catastrophic health outcomes in the U.S.2 In order to mitigate this, public health officials have recommended a variety of social-distancing...
If you have not yet had enough of my schtick, well, here is some more — this time, with a behavioral slant     https://chtbl.com/trackpdcn.co/e/mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/m5dzmb/Barry_Ritholtz_-_Coronavirus_-_3_22_20_12_23_PM.mp3 Source: Behavioral Grooves   The post Behavioral Grooves: Keeping Perspective in a Crisis appeared first on The Big Picture. (Source)
Yesterday’s discussion about bailouts (for airlines and other industries) provoked some interesting feedback from readers. Some were against any aid to anyone; other wanted to drop helicopter money from the skies. Perhaps some context will help people better understand what we are trying to accomplish with this initial fiscal...
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train self-isolation reads: • We are all Modern Monetarists now (Business Insider)• Buying During a Crisis (Of Dollars and Data) see also Stock Market Meltdown’s Historic Velocity Bruises Investors (Wall Street Journal)• Defining Information (Stratechery)• The new coronavirus...
    The transcript from this week’s, MiB: David Dunning on Metacognition,  is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras, on Apple iTunes, Spotify, Overcast, Google, Bloomberg, and Stitcher. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.   ~~~   BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS...